Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
02/13/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Since the Kentucky Derby Future Wager began in 1999, the mutuel field has been the correct bet in six of the 13 Pool 1 wagers, including three of the last four years. However, half of those winners paid $6.00 or less and two others were sent off at odds of 5-2 and 3-1. There is certainly no value in betting the chalk.
The only year a single entrant won the Derby since 2008 was two years ago when Super Saver crossed the wire first. That year, the "all others" wager was the heavy 3-2 betting choice while the eventual Derby winner went off at 20-1. Super Saver's Pool 1 odds were actually lower than in Pools 2 and 3 when he went off at 24-1 and 35-1, respectively. Ironically, his odds wound up much lower on Derby Day when the son of Maria's Mon was the 8-1 second choice.
This year, the "all others" wager closed at 3-2 while Union Rags (7-1) was the lone single horse below 10-1. Since the field was bet so hard, it left some appealing odds on some pretty decent horses.
Those who liked Liaison prior to the Robert B. Lewis Stakes were loving life when the Bob Baffert-trained colt closed at a hefty 56-1. If the son of Indian Charlie had won that race, he would have been the third or fourth choice in Pool 1 at around 15-1.
I'll Have Another, the winner of the Robert B. Lewis, is still not getting any respect as his 29-1 Pool 1 odds are not that much lower than the 43-1 number he went off on Feb 4.
The fact these two horses have already bankrolled enough graded earnings to hold down a spot in the 20-horse field gives even more credence to their chances of winning the Derby at huge Future Wager odds.
It seems as if the betting public has opted to stay away from the California three-year-olds as the majority of them are tremendous prices. Five other colts from out west are all over 20-1 and some much higher than that.
Out of Bounds looked like a colt on his way to bigger and better things after he won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 7. His trainer Eoin Harty has been high on him for a long time and the horse will try to keep moving forward in his next start, the San Felipe Stakes on Mar. 10. Out of Bounds closed at 23-1.
Fed Biz wound up at 21-1, which might be a bargain when all is said and done. The son of Giant's Causeway looked like a beast in his second lifetime start as he crushed Consulado by almost six lengths.
The $950,000 purchase doesn't have any graded earnings as of yet, which is probably why he closed at 21-1. Still, he is one of the more talented three- year-olds around and Bob Baffert will do his best to find a race where Fed Biz can collect enough money to qualify for the Derby. The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park is worth $200,000 more than the San Felipe so that might be his next destination.
Three other west coast horses ended up at greater odds than those previously mentioned.
Empire Way and Rousing Sermon ran second and third, respectively, in the Robert B. Lewis and surprisingly, both closed at huge odds as the former is 33-1 while the latter is 71-1.
In addition, Midnight Transfer, who has yet to race around two turns, is 67-1. His next start will be the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes, and if he wins or places in that event, that 67-1 will look pretty sweet.
The only California-based horse that is lower than 20-1 is Creative Cause, who wound up at 17-1. The gray colt is scheduled to run in this Sunday's San Vicente Stakes at seven-furlongs. The rest of the expected field does not look too strong, but don't forget, Creative Cause comes into the race off a two- month layoff while dropping back in distance. If he does indeed lose or fail to win impressively, the best time to bet Creative Cause might be in Pool 2.
OTHER POOL 1 THOUGHTS
Todd Pletcher has four of the 23 single entrants and two of them, Algorithms and El Padrino, were heavily bet. The former wound up as the 12-1 third choice behind Union Rags and the field, while the latter came in as the fourth overall choice at 16-1. It is interesting to note that only one of the last five non-field horses to win the Kentucky Derby paid less than $40 in Pool 1.
Pletcher's other two colts closed at very playable numbers.
Discreet Dancer may have distance limitations but he could be the most talented three-year-old in the country. His 30-1 odds are enormously juicy.
Gemologist has not gotten as much publicity as the other three horses but he could wind up being the Kentucky Derby winner. The reason for the lack of hype is his lack of activity as the son of Tiznow has not raced since winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. Furthermore, his first published workout of the year came on Feb. 5.
Gemologist could take a similar path to Kentucky as Super Saver did if he starts his three-year-old campaign in next month's Tampa Bay Derby. The other option is waiting another week for the Rebel Stakes. The undefeated colt wound up taking a lot of money over the last two days as he dropped to 22-1 after closing at 42-1 on Friday night.
The horse that took the most money since the first night was Take Charge Indy. The Patrick Byrne-trained colt was 30-1 on the morning line, jumped all the way up to 83-1 after Friday, and then closed at 42-1.
Hansen, who will make his next appearance in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, wound up at 26-1 after his poor performance over a sloppy track in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Even though he opened as the 12-1 third choice (of the single entrants), the 26-1 is still an underlay since it is doubtful he will be able to handle the 10-furlong trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Alpha closed at 19-1, a price that also looks to be a tad low considering how much of a head case he is at the starting gate. That attribute will not serve him well at Churchill Downs when the drone of over 150,000 screaming fans will be buzzing in his ears.
Union Rags is worthy of being the favorite (outside the field) as he gets ready for his first start of the year in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park later this month. However, he has a couple of question marks that need to be answered, such as his tendency to drift through the stretch, as well as a pedigree that might not be as effective at 1 1/4-miles.
As for the field, there are a few colts that stand out such as Spring Hill Farm, Sky Kingdom and Russian Greek, but it is best to wait until Pools 2 and 3 to see if they become single entrants. If they do, those pools would be the ones to bet on them, rather than taking the 3-2 odds they are currently saddled with.
THE JEFF FRANK "DIRTY DOZEN"
1) Union Rags - Julien Leparoux replaces Javier Castellano in the saddle; 2) Algorithms - Castellano chooses Pletcher and Algorithms over Union Rags; 3) I'll Have Another - The Santa Anita Derby will be next; 4) Fed Biz - The buzz around Biz is abundant; 5) Gemologist - Still weeks away from his three-year- old debut; 6) Discreet Dancer - Needs to show he can handle two turns; 7) Alpha - The Wood Memorial is next; 8) Out of Bounds - Awaits the San Felipe in early March; 9) Creative Cause - Comes into the San Vicente off a smashing 6- furlong work; 10) El Padrino - The Risen Star is next; 11) Hansen - Heads to New York for the Gotham Stakes; 12) Empire Way - Will meet a tough field in the San Felipe.
<< Jazz top Grizzlies to snap 3-game slide
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gordon Hayward scored 23 points and handed out
five assists, and the Utah Jazz snapped a three-game slide with a 98-88
victory over the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday.
Al Jefferson chipped in 21 points a
<< San Pail named Harness Horse of the Year
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seven-year-old trotter San Pail has been named
harness racing's 2011 Horse of the Year. The announcement came Sunday night by
the U.S. Harness Writers Association at the annual Dan Patch Awards dinner.
Trained
<< Malkin scores twice, Pens double up Lightning
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Evgeni Malkin lit the lamp twice and the
Pittsburgh Penguins scored four unanswered goals Sunday night to beat the
Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2.
The Penguins bounced back from the two quickest goals b
<< 20! Red Wings tie home winning streak mark
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings tied the NHL record with
their 20th straight home win, beating the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3 on Sunday.
The Red Wings tied the record set by Boston during the 1929-30 season and
matched by P
Caps try for rare win against Sharks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Capitals found themselves leading the
Southeast Division a week ago, but consecutive losses have them outside of the
playoff picture once again.
The Caps look to avoid losing three straight for the first tim
Bobcats hope to halt franchise-record skid against Sixers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Charlotte Bobcats try to avoid a 15th straight loss
this evening when they welcome the Philadelphia 76ers to Time Warner Cable
Arena.
Charlotte established a new club record for futility on Saturday, as it
dropped a 1
Guadalajara's woes continue with loss to Monterrey >>
Monterrey, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Guadalajara was held without a goal
for the fourth time through just six matches in Mexico's Clausura on
Saturday, losing 2-0 to Monterrey to remain at the foot of the standings.
Jesus De
Reeling Wolves visit Magic >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves try to avoid a fourth straight
loss this evening when they visit the Orlando Magic
That may be easier said than done, though, as the Magic have won the last six,
seven of the last eight and eight
American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies
It's that time of year folks. Betting on American Idol Season 9. And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below. With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.
No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.
Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.
Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.
Odds to Win
There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.
All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.
A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.
Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.
Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol.
Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.
If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.
Elimination Props
Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.
Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.
Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups
The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.
Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting